Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
The clash between the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve over monetary strategy is causing serious strains in the global financial system and could lead to a replay of Europe's exchange rate crisis in the 1990s, a team of bankers has warned.
"We see striking similarities between the transatlantic tensions that built up in the early 1990s and those that are accumulating again today. The outcome of the 1992 deadlock was a major currency crisis and a recession in Europe," said a report by Morgan Stanley's European experts.
Just as then, Washington has slashed rates to bail out the banks and prevent an economic hard-landing, while Frankfurt has stuck to its hawkish line - ignoring angry protests from politicians and squeals of pain from Europe's export industry.
Indeed, the ECB has let the de facto interest rate - Euribor - rise by over 100 basis points since the credit crisis began.
Just as then, the dollar has plummeted far enough to cause worldwide alarm. In August 1992 it fell to 1.35 against the Deutsche Mark: this time it has fallen even further to the equivalent of 1.25. It is potentially worse for Europe this time because the yen and yuan have also fallen to near record lows. So has sterling.
Morgan Stanley doubts that Europe's monetary union will break up under pressure, but it warns that corked pressures will have to find release one way or another.
This will most likely occur through property slumps and banking purges in the vulnerable countries of the Club Med region and the euro-satellite states of Eastern Europe.
"The tensions will not disappear into thin air. They will find fault lines on the periphery of Europe. Painful macro adjustments are likely to take place. Pegs to the euro could be questioned," said the report, written by Eric Chaney, Carlos Caceres, and Pasquale Diana.
The point of maximum stress could occur in coming months if the ECB carries out the threat this month by Jean-Claude Trichet to raise rates. It will be worse yet - for Europe - if the Fed backs away from expected tightening. "This could trigger another 'catastrophic' event," warned Morgan Stanley.
The markets have priced in two US rates rises later this year following a series of "hawkish" comments by Fed chief Ben Bernanke and other US officials, but this may have been a misjudgment.
An article in the Washington Post by veteran columnist Robert Novak suggested that Mr Bernanke is concerned that runaway oil costs will cause a slump in growth, viewing inflation as the lesser threat. He is irked by the ECB's talk of further monetary tightening at such a dangerous juncture.
The contrasting approaches in Washington and Frankfurt make some sense. America's flexible structure allows it to adjust quickly to shocks. Europe's more rigid system leaves it with "sticky" prices that take longer to fall back as growth slows.
Morgan Stanley says the current account deficits of Spain (10.5pc of GDP), Portugal (10.5pc), and Greece (14pc) would never have been able to reach such extreme levels before the launch of the euro.
EMU has shielded them from punishment by the markets, but this has allowed them to store up serious trouble. By contrast, Germany now has a huge surplus of 7.7pc of GDP.
The imbalances appear to be getting worse. The latest food and oil spike has pushed eurozone inflation to a record 3.7pc, with big variations by country. Spanish inflation is rising at 4.7pc even though the country is now in the grip of a full-blown property crash. It is still falling further behind Germany. The squeeze required to claw back lost competitiveness will be "politically unpalatable".
Morgan Stanley said the biggest risk lies in the arc of countries from the Baltics to the Black Sea where credit growth has been roaring at 40pc to 50pc a year. Current account deficits have reached 23pc of GDP in Latvia, and 22pc in Bulgaria. In Hungary and Romania, over 55pc of household debt is in euros or Swiss francs.
Swedish, Austrian, Greek and Italian banks have provided much of the funding for the credit booms. A crunch is looming in 2009 when a wave of maturities fall due. "Could the funding dry up? We think it could," said the bank.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 11:44pm BST 17/06/2008
The Royal Bank of Scotland has advised clients to brace for a full-fledged crash in global stock and credit markets over the next three months as inflation paralyses the major central banks.
"A very nasty period is soon to be upon us - be prepared," said Bob Janjuah, the bank's credit strategist.
A report by the bank's research team warns that the S&P 500 index of Wall Street equities is likely to fall by more than 300 points to around 1050 by September as "all the chickens come home to roost" from the excesses of the global boom, with contagion spreading across Europe and emerging markets.
Such a slide on world bourses would amount to one of the worst bear markets over the last century.
# More on banking
RBS said the iTraxx index of high-grade corporate bonds could soar to 130/150 while the "Crossover" index of lower grade corporate bonds could reach 650/700 in a renewed bout of panic on the debt markets.
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"I do not think I can be much blunter. If you have to be in credit, focus on quality, short durations, non-cyclical defensive names.
"Cash is the key safe haven. This is about not losing your money, and not losing your job," said Mr Janjuah, who became a City star after his grim warnings last year about the credit crisis proved all too accurate.
RBS expects Wall Street to rally a little further into early July before short-lived momentum from America's fiscal boost begins to fizzle out, and the delayed effects of the oil spike inflict their damage.
"Globalisation was always going to risk putting G7 bankers into a dangerous corner at some point. We have got to that point," he said.
US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank both face a Hobson's choice as workers start to lose their jobs in earnest and lenders cut off credit.
The authorities cannot respond with easy money because oil and food costs continue to push headline inflation to levels that are unsettling the markets. "The ugly spoiler is that we may need to see much lower global growth in order to get lower inflation," he said.
"The Fed is in panic mode. The massive credibility chasms down which the Fed and maybe even the ECB will plummet when they fail to hike rates in the face of higher inflation will combine to give us a big sell-off in risky assets," he said.
Kit Jukes, RBS's head of debt markets, said Europe would not be immune. "Economic weakness is spreading and the latest data on consumer demand and confidence are dire. The ECB is hell-bent on raising rates.
"The political fall-out could be substantial as finance ministers from the weaker economies rail at the ECB. Wider spreads between the German Bunds and peripheral markets seem assured," he said.
Ultimately, the bank expects the oil price spike to subside as the more powerful force of debt deflation takes hold next year.
Sunday, June 01, 2008
The boss of Bradford & Bingley has quit "due to a serious cardiovascular condition", the firm has announced.
Chief executive Stephen Crawshaw is leaving the UK mortgage lender with immediate effect, and will be replaced by chairman Rod Kent in the short-term.
Mr Crawshaw's departure comes a day before a trading update and reports say the firm will issue a profit warning.
The firm has been hit hard by the credit crisis and is trying to raise £300m to boost its balance sheet.I wonder will they be the next Northern Rock?
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
More than a fifth of UK homebuyers who have a chequered credit history have fallen behind on their mortgage payments and even those with top-quality ratings have seen a statistically significant rise in delinquencies in the first three months of this year.
New data from Standard & Poor’s provides the first glimpse into how mortgages are performing this year. It is based on the behaviour of homebuyers whose loans have been packed into mortgage-backed securities – which accounts for 80 per cent of the £43bn subprime mortgage market.
Of all loans to borrowers with poor or no credit history, total delinquencies – defined as arrears of more than 30 days – made up 21.73 per cent at the end of March while those seriously delinquent by 90 days or more, including some already in foreclosure, edged into double digits at 10.60 per cent.
The figures show that more than £7bn worth of loans are at risk of default unless lenders agree to modify the loan terms. S&P believes that the loans backing the securities it rates are a representative sample of the market as a whole. The rise in subprime arrears threatens further problems not only for the economy but also for those financial institutions that bought securities backed by the loans.
Potentially more worrying is the small but notable increase in delinquency rates among prime mortgage-holders.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7421045.stm
When the woman entered the UK in March 1998 under an assumed name, she was seriously ill and was admitted to hospital.
So she's been here for 10 years at 25,000 per year. Total 250,000 Pounds.
The high taxes to pay for the NHS discourage decent migrants, and the NHS free treatment encourages the worst immigrants to the U.K.
Saturday, May 24, 2008
Geonomics
Geonomics is a political/economic system that understands that economies run on the exchange of time, and that governments are extremely bad at doing anything other than force.
Governments have diworsified into vast areas of life. Areas that the government runs it runs extremely badly. The ways that government raises money cause huge economic damage, and the ways that government spends the money cause huge social damage. Government should be used only for externalising problems, such as pollution, crime and defence.
A Geonomic government would treat everyone equally. Instead of paying out when people make mistakes (what governments call social-insurance*), geonomics pays every citizen a regular citizens dividend. This is raised by taxing the right to exclude i.e intellectual (patent/copyright) and physical property tax.
With 8 Trillion of Property to tax at 7% per year each UK citizen could get a dividend of over 9 thousand pounds! The average person, should be able to live in the average house.
Market Geonomics:
Market Geonomics allows the owner to set the price of their property, and they are taxed at a percentage of that value. However to make sure the price is not set artificially low anyone can buy the property, with a delay (say 2 years for physical). This would solve a lot of planning permission problems and speed up compulsory purchase etc. and ensure a much more efficient utilisation of land. For intellectual property this would ensure much more sub-licensing of patents in order to make the patent work, instead of using it as an attempt to block competitors.
Any country using geonomics would be able to lower their investment interest rates as the geonomic tax would act like an interest rate. This would mean that houses would be more affordable(Av Wages/Av House Price), and that speculative house price bubbles should be much less likely to form.
Education:
Parents would be responsible for paying for the education of their own children. Government would lend parents the money (Government would become a net lender instead of borrower and thus take inflation more seriously), only the interest payments would come out of the parents citizens dividend. As parents would be choosing schools and paying for their child's education, they would tend to take far more interest in the standard of the teaching, rather than using them as a subsidised crèche, this should lead to higher educational attainment, as well as an end to poorer parents being priced out of schools because they cannot afford a near enough house to a good school. By the time each child has left school their accumulated citizens dividends should make a sizeable fund to let them purchase job relevant training or a university education.
Health:
Each citizen gets a dividend, this would be topped up depending on the cost of catastrophically insuring a fit person of their age and sex. This would ensure that the moral hazard of the NHS is removed. It would also allow you to decide not to pursue terminal low chance treatments and enjoy your last times. If someone was not watching their health they would hopefully notice the extra payments they have to make to purchase insurance and decide to do something about it.
Employment:
As there are no taxes on Income, there are no barriers to earning, so more people would work, and more people could be employed. You would keep 100% of the money you earn, and the government would not need to pry into your private financial details. Hopefully more people would find the security of the citizens dividend to setup their own small businesses.
Retirement:
Retirement would mean that you just take the citizens dividend. There would be no ageism with regard to forcing people of a certain age from their work.
*as normal Social-X means the opposite of X.
Friday, May 23, 2008
Economics
Most people see economics as about goods. They are wrong, economics is about the use of peoples TIME, specifically when they freely exchange it with others to both parties mutua advantage. Goods are merely the products of that time. Comparative Advantage shows that the more time that is exchanged voluntarily, the more productivity increases and thus living standards are raised. The more the exchange of time is hampered say through income taxes/national insurance/VAT (value is added through work) or through crime (theft & slavery) the more the economy will suffer.
Money:
Money is temporal barter it represents the economy it is used within. With barter, people exchange their time , however using money allows them to utilise other peoples time when they actually need it, rather than at the moment of exchange. This is much more productive, and that's why societies that abandon money get out-competed.
Debt and Credit:
Credit is the use of another persons time in the future. Debt is the use of your time in the future. When to borrow? When your utility is increased by borrowing! i.e. At the time in the future when the money is paid back with interest, you have a higher utility than if you didn't borrow. One of the best examples of useful borrowing is for education, however most people wrongly think that subsidising education is better.
Inflation:
There are two types of inflation, Price Inflation and Monetary inflation. Price inflation is caused by Price = Demand/Supply. This system is chaotically stable as changes in price cause lagged changes in supply which bring the equation back into balance. However speculative bubbles can form when the demand correlates with the price(i.e people "invest" because the price has gone up), this can form dangerous runaway cycles, both up and down in price! Monetary Inflation is caused by increasing the amount of monetary units in the economy If this expansion is "Adiabatic" then each monetary unit represents less of the economy, i.e. its value is lessened. However the economy tends to get more productive so a certain growth in monetary unit numbers, means that they tend to have the same utility. A small amount of monetary inflation is useful, because otherwise people could just sit on their monetary units and see it grow in value. This would eventally stop people exchanging their time and the economy would sieve up!
